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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Ignacio C. Fernández; David Manuel-Navarrete; Robinson Torres-Salinas;

    Resilience can have desirable and undesirable consequences. Thus, resilience should not be viewed as a normative desirable goal, but as a descriptor of complex systems dynamics. From this perspective, we apply resilience thinking concepts to assess the dynamics of inequality, spatial segregation, and sustainability in Chile’s capital city of Santiago. Chile’s economy boosted since democracy was restored in 1990, but continuity of neoliberal reforms and transformations of Pinochet’s dictatorship (1973–1990) seem to have locked Chilean cities in resilient, albeit unsustainable, patterns of uneven development. Socio-economic data from Santiago shows highly resilient patterns of urban inequality and segregation from 1992 to 2009 despite democratic efforts, political agendas and discourses packed with calls for reducing poverty and inequality. We present a conceptual model based on the notion of stability landscapes to explore potential trade-offs between resilience and sustainable development. We mapped Santiago’s spatio-temporal inequality trends and explored if these patterns support an inequality-resilience stability landscape. Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution of development assets across four human development dimensions (i.e., income, education, health, democracy) revealed potential socio-political and spatial feedbacks supporting the resilience of inequality and segregation in Santiago. We argue that urban sustainability may require breaking this resilience, a process where bottom-up stressors such as social movements could play a key role.

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    Sustainability
    Other literature type . Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    Sustainability
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    DOAJ
    Article . 2016
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    Sustainability
    Article . 2016
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Sustainabilityarrow_drop_down
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      Sustainability
      Other literature type . Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Micaela Vannini; Paola Marchese; Laura Sisti; Andrea Saccani; +3 Authors

    With the aim to fully exploit the by-products obtained after the industrial extraction of starch from sweet potatoes, a cascading approach was developed to extract high-value molecules, such as proteins and pectins, and to valorize the solid fraction, rich in starch and fibrous components. This fraction was used to prepare new biocomposites designed for food packaging applications. The sweet potato residue was added to poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) in various amounts up to 40 wt % by melt mixing, without any previous treatment. The composites are semicrystalline materials, characterized by thermal stability up to 260 °C. For the composites containing up to 10 wt % of residue, the tensile strength remains over 30 MPa and the strain stays over 3.2%. A homogeneous dispersion of the sweet potato waste into the bio-polymeric matrix was achieved but, despite the presence of hydrogen bond interactions between the components, a poor interfacial adhesion was detected. Considering the significant percentage of sweet potato waste used, the biocomposites obtained show a low economic and environmental impact, resulting in an interesting bio-alternative to the materials commonly used in the packaging industry. Thus, according to the principles of a circular economy, the preparation of the biocomposites closes the loop of the complete valorization of sweet potato products and by-products.

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    DOAJ
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    Polymers
    Article . 2021
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    Polymers
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Archivio istituziona...arrow_drop_down
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      Polymers
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      Polymers
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    Authors: Lene Lange; Kevin O. Connor; Sigurjon Arason; Uffe Bundgård-Jørgensen; +17 Authors

    This paper gives an overview of development of the EU-bioeconomy, 2014-2020. The Vision of the new Circular Bio-based Economy, CBE is presented: Unlocking the full potential of all types of sustainably sourced biomass, crop residues, industrial side-streams, and wastes by transforming it into value-added products. The resulting product portfolio consists of a wide spectrum of value-added products, addressing societal and consumer needs. Food and feed, bio-based chemicals, materials, healthpromoting products; and bio-based fuels. The pillars of CBE are described, including biotechnology, microbial production, enzyme technology, green chemistry, integrated physical/chemical processing, policies, conducive framework conditions and public private partnerships. Drivers of CBE are analyzed: Biomass supply, biorefineries, value chain clusters, rural development, farmers, foresters and mariners; urgent need for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and stopping biodiversity loss. Improved framework conditions can be drivers but also obstacles if not updated to the era of circularity. Key figures, across the entire BBI-JU project portfolio (20142020) are provided, including expansion into biomass feedstocks, terrestrial and aquatic, and an impressive broadening of bio-based product portfolio, including higher-value, healthpromoting products for man, animal, plants and soil. Parallel to this, diversification of industrial segments and types of funding instruments developed, reflecting industrial needs and academic research involvement. Impact assessment is highlighted. A number of specific recommendations are given; e.g., including international win/win CBEcollaborations, as e.g., expanding African EU collaboration into CBE. In contrast to fossil resources biological resources are found worldwide. In its outset, circular biobased economy, can be implemented all over, in a just manner, not the least stimulating rural development This study received funding only for covering the production costs (carried by the public BBI-JU secretariat). info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

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    Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology
    Other literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology
      Other literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Armon Rezai; Frederick van der Ploeg;

    Climate change must deal with two market failures: global warming and learning by doing in renewable energy production. The first-best policy consists of an aggressive renewables subsidy in the near term and a gradually rising and falling carbon tax. Given that global carbon taxes remain elusive, policy makers might have to rely on a second-best subsidy only. With credible commitment the second-best subsidy is higher than the social benefit of learning to cut the transition time and peak warming close to first-best levels at the cost of higher fossil fuel use in the short run (weak Green Paradox). Without commitment the second-best subsidy is set to the social benefit of learning. It generates smaller weak Green Paradox effects, but the transition to the carbon-free takes longer and cumulative carbon emissions are higher. Under first best and second best with pre-commitment peak warming is 2.1–2.3 $$^{\circ }$$ C, under second best without commitment 3.5 $$^{\circ }$$ C, and without any policy 5.1 $$^{\circ }$$ C above pre-industrial levels. Not being able to commit yields a welfare loss of 95% of initial GDP compared to first best. Being able to commit brings this figure down to 7%.

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    Environmental and Resource Economics
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    SSRN Electronic Journal
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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      Environmental and Resource Economics
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      SSRN Electronic Journal
      Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Maëlezig Bigi; Nathalie Greenan; Sylvie Hamon-Cholet; Joseph Lanfranchi;

    International audience; We investigate the human sustainability of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and management changes using a French linked employer-employee survey on organizational changes and computerization. We approach the human sustainability of changes through the evolutions of work intensity, skills utilization, and the subjective relationship to work. We compare in the private sector and the state civil service the impacts of ICT and management changes on the evolution of these three dimensions of work experience. We find that intense ICT and management changes are associated, in the public sector, with work intensification and knowledge increase. In the private sector, ICT and management changes increase the use of skills, but at a rate decreasing with their intensity and without favoring the accumulation of new knowledge. However, their impacts on the subjective relationship to work are much stronger, with public sector employees expressing discouragement, as well as the feeling of an increased effort-reward imbalance when private sector employees become more committed. We find that this divergence is neither explained by the self-selection of employees in the two sectors nor by implementation of performance pay. We identify two partial explanations: one is related to employee turnover in the private sector, the other to the role of trade unions. These results suggest that the human sustainability of ICT and management changes depends on their intensity and on how their implementation takes into account the institutional context of the organization.

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    https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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      https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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    Authors: Piotr Jóźwiak; Jarosław Hercog; Aleksandra Kiedrzyńska; Krzysztof Badyda; +1 Authors

    Preheating furnaces, which are commonly used in many production sectors (e.g., iron and steel), are simultaneously one of the most energy-intensive devices used in the industry. Partial replacement of natural gas with biomass-derived synthesis gas as a fuel used for heating would be an important step towards limiting industrial CO2 emissions. The time dependent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of an exemplary furnace was created to evaluate whether it is possible to obtain 40% of energy from syngas combustion without deterioration of thermal parameters of the treated load. As an outcome, a promising method to organize co-firing in the furnace was indicated. The obtained results show that the co-firing method (up to 40% thermal natural gas replacement with syngas), assuming low air-to-fuel equivalence ratio (&lambda the heat transferred to the load exceeds 95% of the heat delivered to the load in the reference case), while carbon dioxide emission is reduced from 285.5 to 171.3 kg CO2/h. This study showed that it is feasible (from the heat transfer point of view) to decrease the environmental impact of the process industries by the use of renewable fuels. NG = 2.0) and even distribution of power among the furnace corners, lead to satisfactory efficiency of the heat treatment process&mdash

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    DOAJ
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    Authors: Vujović, Dušan;

    Fiscal consolidation in Serbia was based on a comprehensive, multiyear program built on broad-based expenditure cuts, better revenue performance, and related structural reforms and pro-growth policies. During the first two year of implementation the actual fiscal performance substantially exceeded the original and revised deficit targets set in the IMF supported three-year precautionary program. In 2015, the actual deficit (3.7 percent of GDP) exceeded program target by 2.2 percentage points. In 2016 the implementation performance further improved as the actual deficit (1.36 percent of GDP) was 2.6 percentage points better than the plan. The result implies a 4.4 percentage point structural deficit adjustment which exceeds the program target one year ahead of schedule. In this, revenues contribute 3.5 percentage points, public wages 1.0, pensions 0.6 and reversals of structural expenditure savings take away -0.7. The program had a beneficial impact on economic growth. The economy bottomed-out in the third quarter and started recovering in late 2014-early 2015 leading to a positive 0.8 percent growth for the entire year. The growth further recovered in 2016 (+2.8 percent) and is expected to reach 3 percent in 2017 and stabilize at 3.5 percent annually thereafter. With this performance Serbia may become a case of 'expansionary austerity' which demonstrates that fiscal consolidation programs designed in line with sound principles and synchronized with key structural reforms and pro-growth policies can generate growth. Carefully selected expenditure cuts combined with pro-growth revenue collection efforts can have expansionary effect on growth even under most difficult circumstances The political economy issues of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms gain increasing importance in the last year of the program, two months ahead of presidential elections. Fresh thinking is needed to demonstrate that the completion of difficult reforms is a win-win for all, and most everybody loses if reforms are stalled or abandoned.

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    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Florian Fizaine; Victor Court;

    International audience; We estimate energy expenditure for the US and world economies from 1850 to 2012. Periods of high energy expenditure relative to GDP (from 1850 to 1945), or spikes (1973–74 and 1978–79) are associated with low economic growth rates, and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates (e.g. 1945–1973). Over the period 1960–2010 for which we have continuous year-to-year data for control variables (capital formation, population, and unemployment rate) we estimate that, statistically, in order to enjoy positive growth, the US economy cannot afford to spend more than 11% of its GDP on energy. Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROI of approximately 11:1 (or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level). Granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure (as a fraction of GDP) to economic growth in the US between 1960 and 2010. A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency. This would yield a “double dividend”: increased societal EROI (through decreased energy intensity of capital investment), and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility.

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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Johanna Grames; Dieter Grass; Peter M. Kort; Alexia Prskawetz;

    Abstract: Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides an economic partial equilibrium model, which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. We find that, the higher the flood risk and the more the firm values the future, i.e. the more sustainable the firm plans, the more the firm will invest in flood defense. Investments in productive capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic settings have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to generate higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial productive capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed productive capital.

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    Central European Journal of Operations Research
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Central European Journal of Operations Research
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    Authors: Fleiter, Tobias; Rehfeldt, Matthias; Herbst, Andrea; Elsland, Rainer; +3 Authors

    Abstract Bottom-up energy models can support strategic decision-making and can help to manage an efficient transition to a low-carbon energy system. The manufacturing industry accounted for about 19% of EU-wide greenhouse gas emissions in 2014, which underlines the importance of this sector for model-based decarbonisation assessments. This paper describes the methodology of the FORECAST model. FORECAST is a bottom-up simulation model used to develop long-term scenarios for the future energy demand of industry, services and household sectors. In this study, we discuss the model in the light of developing transition scenarios for the decarbonisation of the industry sector. In doing so, we focus on the model's structure and simulation algorithms, and provide illustrative results. The FORECAST model includes a broad range of mitigation options combined with a high level of technological detail. Technology diffusion and stock turnover are explicitly considered to allow insights into transition pathways. The model further includes different policy levers to improve its applicability as a policy support tool. The model is designed to cover the entire industry sector from major energy-intensive processes to the numerous less energy-intensive sub-sectors and applications. The concluding discussion suggests future research directions to improve the contribution industry sector models can make to supporting the industrial energy transition.

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    Energy Strategy Reviews
    Other literature type . Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Article . 2018
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      Energy Strategy Reviews
      Other literature type . Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Ignacio C. Fernández; David Manuel-Navarrete; Robinson Torres-Salinas;

    Resilience can have desirable and undesirable consequences. Thus, resilience should not be viewed as a normative desirable goal, but as a descriptor of complex systems dynamics. From this perspective, we apply resilience thinking concepts to assess the dynamics of inequality, spatial segregation, and sustainability in Chile’s capital city of Santiago. Chile’s economy boosted since democracy was restored in 1990, but continuity of neoliberal reforms and transformations of Pinochet’s dictatorship (1973–1990) seem to have locked Chilean cities in resilient, albeit unsustainable, patterns of uneven development. Socio-economic data from Santiago shows highly resilient patterns of urban inequality and segregation from 1992 to 2009 despite democratic efforts, political agendas and discourses packed with calls for reducing poverty and inequality. We present a conceptual model based on the notion of stability landscapes to explore potential trade-offs between resilience and sustainable development. We mapped Santiago’s spatio-temporal inequality trends and explored if these patterns support an inequality-resilience stability landscape. Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution of development assets across four human development dimensions (i.e., income, education, health, democracy) revealed potential socio-political and spatial feedbacks supporting the resilience of inequality and segregation in Santiago. We argue that urban sustainability may require breaking this resilience, a process where bottom-up stressors such as social movements could play a key role.

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    Sustainability
    Other literature type . Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Micaela Vannini; Paola Marchese; Laura Sisti; Andrea Saccani; +3 Authors

    With the aim to fully exploit the by-products obtained after the industrial extraction of starch from sweet potatoes, a cascading approach was developed to extract high-value molecules, such as proteins and pectins, and to valorize the solid fraction, rich in starch and fibrous components. This fraction was used to prepare new biocomposites designed for food packaging applications. The sweet potato residue was added to poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) in various amounts up to 40 wt % by melt mixing, without any previous treatment. The composites are semicrystalline materials, characterized by thermal stability up to 260 °C. For the composites containing up to 10 wt % of residue, the tensile strength remains over 30 MPa and the strain stays over 3.2%. A homogeneous dispersion of the sweet potato waste into the bio-polymeric matrix was achieved but, despite the presence of hydrogen bond interactions between the components, a poor interfacial adhesion was detected. Considering the significant percentage of sweet potato waste used, the biocomposites obtained show a low economic and environmental impact, resulting in an interesting bio-alternative to the materials commonly used in the packaging industry. Thus, according to the principles of a circular economy, the preparation of the biocomposites closes the loop of the complete valorization of sweet potato products and by-products.

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    Polymers
    Article . 2021
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    Authors: Lene Lange; Kevin O. Connor; Sigurjon Arason; Uffe Bundgård-Jørgensen; +17 Authors

    This paper gives an overview of development of the EU-bioeconomy, 2014-2020. The Vision of the new Circular Bio-based Economy, CBE is presented: Unlocking the full potential of all types of sustainably sourced biomass, crop residues, industrial side-streams, and wastes by transforming it into value-added products. The resulting product portfolio consists of a wide spectrum of value-added products, addressing societal and consumer needs. Food and feed, bio-based chemicals, materials, healthpromoting products; and bio-based fuels. The pillars of CBE are described, including biotechnology, microbial production, enzyme technology, green chemistry, integrated physical/chemical processing, policies, conducive framework conditions and public private partnerships. Drivers of CBE are analyzed: Biomass supply, biorefineries, value chain clusters, rural development, farmers, foresters and mariners; urgent need for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and stopping biodiversity loss. Improved framework conditions can be drivers but also obstacles if not updated to the era of circularity. Key figures, across the entire BBI-JU project portfolio (20142020) are provided, including expansion into biomass feedstocks, terrestrial and aquatic, and an impressive broadening of bio-based product portfolio, including higher-value, healthpromoting products for man, animal, plants and soil. Parallel to this, diversification of industrial segments and types of funding instruments developed, reflecting industrial needs and academic research involvement. Impact assessment is highlighted. A number of specific recommendations are given; e.g., including international win/win CBEcollaborations, as e.g., expanding African EU collaboration into CBE. In contrast to fossil resources biological resources are found worldwide. In its outset, circular biobased economy, can be implemented all over, in a just manner, not the least stimulating rural development This study received funding only for covering the production costs (carried by the public BBI-JU secretariat). info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

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    Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology
    Other literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology
      Other literature type . Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Armon Rezai; Frederick van der Ploeg;

    Climate change must deal with two market failures: global warming and learning by doing in renewable energy production. The first-best policy consists of an aggressive renewables subsidy in the near term and a gradually rising and falling carbon tax. Given that global carbon taxes remain elusive, policy makers might have to rely on a second-best subsidy only. With credible commitment the second-best subsidy is higher than the social benefit of learning to cut the transition time and peak warming close to first-best levels at the cost of higher fossil fuel use in the short run (weak Green Paradox). Without commitment the second-best subsidy is set to the social benefit of learning. It generates smaller weak Green Paradox effects, but the transition to the carbon-free takes longer and cumulative carbon emissions are higher. Under first best and second best with pre-commitment peak warming is 2.1–2.3 $$^{\circ }$$ C, under second best without commitment 3.5 $$^{\circ }$$ C, and without any policy 5.1 $$^{\circ }$$ C above pre-industrial levels. Not being able to commit yields a welfare loss of 95% of initial GDP compared to first best. Being able to commit brings this figure down to 7%.

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    Environmental and Resource Economics
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    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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      Environmental and Resource Economics
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    Authors: Maëlezig Bigi; Nathalie Greenan; Sylvie Hamon-Cholet; Joseph Lanfranchi;

    International audience; We investigate the human sustainability of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and management changes using a French linked employer-employee survey on organizational changes and computerization. We approach the human sustainability of changes through the evolutions of work intensity, skills utilization, and the subjective relationship to work. We compare in the private sector and the state civil service the impacts of ICT and management changes on the evolution of these three dimensions of work experience. We find that intense ICT and management changes are associated, in the public sector, with work intensification and knowledge increase. In the private sector, ICT and management changes increase the use of skills, but at a rate decreasing with their intensity and without favoring the accumulation of new knowledge. However, their impacts on the subjective relationship to work are much stronger, with public sector employees expressing discouragement, as well as the feeling of an increased effort-reward imbalance when private sector employees become more committed. We find that this divergence is neither explained by the self-selection of employees in the two sectors nor by implementation of performance pay. We identify two partial explanations: one is related to employee turnover in the private sector, the other to the role of trade unions. These results suggest that the human sustainability of ICT and management changes depends on their intensity and on how their implementation takes into account the institutional context of the organization.

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    https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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      https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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    Authors: Piotr Jóźwiak; Jarosław Hercog; Aleksandra Kiedrzyńska; Krzysztof Badyda; +1 Authors

    Preheating furnaces, which are commonly used in many production sectors (e.g., iron and steel), are simultaneously one of the most energy-intensive devices used in the industry. Partial replacement of natural gas with biomass-derived synthesis gas as a fuel used for heating would be an important step towards limiting industrial CO2 emissions. The time dependent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of an exemplary furnace was created to evaluate whether it is possible to obtain 40% of energy from syngas combustion without deterioration of thermal parameters of the treated load. As an outcome, a promising method to organize co-firing in the furnace was indicated. The obtained results show that the co-firing method (up to 40% thermal natural gas replacement with syngas), assuming low air-to-fuel equivalence ratio (&lambda the heat transferred to the load exceeds 95% of the heat delivered to the load in the reference case), while carbon dioxide emission is reduced from 285.5 to 171.3 kg CO2/h. This study showed that it is feasible (from the heat transfer point of view) to decrease the environmental impact of the process industries by the use of renewable fuels. NG = 2.0) and even distribution of power among the furnace corners, lead to satisfactory efficiency of the heat treatment process&mdash

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    DOAJ
    Article . 2020
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    Authors: Vujović, Dušan;

    Fiscal consolidation in Serbia was based on a comprehensive, multiyear program built on broad-based expenditure cuts, better revenue performance, and related structural reforms and pro-growth policies. During the first two year of implementation the actual fiscal performance substantially exceeded the original and revised deficit targets set in the IMF supported three-year precautionary program. In 2015, the actual deficit (3.7 percent of GDP) exceeded program target by 2.2 percentage points. In 2016 the implementation performance further improved as the actual deficit (1.36 percent of GDP) was 2.6 percentage points better than the plan. The result implies a 4.4 percentage point structural deficit adjustment which exceeds the program target one year ahead of schedule. In this, revenues contribute 3.5 percentage points, public wages 1.0, pensions 0.6 and reversals of structural expenditure savings take away -0.7. The program had a beneficial impact on economic growth. The economy bottomed-out in the third quarter and started recovering in late 2014-early 2015 leading to a positive 0.8 percent growth for the entire year. The growth further recovered in 2016 (+2.8 percent) and is expected to reach 3 percent in 2017 and stabilize at 3.5 percent annually thereafter. With this performance Serbia may become a case of 'expansionary austerity' which demonstrates that fiscal consolidation programs designed in line with sound principles and synchronized with key structural reforms and pro-growth policies can generate growth. Carefully selected expenditure cuts combined with pro-growth revenue collection efforts can have expansionary effect on growth even under most difficult circumstances The political economy issues of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms gain increasing importance in the last year of the program, two months ahead of presidential elections. Fresh thinking is needed to demonstrate that the completion of difficult reforms is a win-win for all, and most everybody loses if reforms are stalled or abandoned.

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      Ekonomika preduzeća
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Florian Fizaine; Victor Court;

    International audience; We estimate energy expenditure for the US and world economies from 1850 to 2012. Periods of high energy expenditure relative to GDP (from 1850 to 1945), or spikes (1973–74 and 1978–79) are associated with low economic growth rates, and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates (e.g. 1945–1973). Over the period 1960–2010 for which we have continuous year-to-year data for control variables (capital formation, population, and unemployment rate) we estimate that, statistically, in order to enjoy positive growth, the US economy cannot afford to spend more than 11% of its GDP on energy. Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROI of approximately 11:1 (or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level). Granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure (as a fraction of GDP) to economic growth in the US between 1960 and 2010. A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency. This would yield a “double dividend”: increased societal EROI (through decreased energy intensity of capital investment), and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility.

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    Energy Policy
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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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    Authors: Johanna Grames; Dieter Grass; Peter M. Kort; Alexia Prskawetz;

    Abstract: Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides an economic partial equilibrium model, which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. We find that, the higher the flood risk and the more the firm values the future, i.e. the more sustainable the firm plans, the more the firm will invest in flood defense. Investments in productive capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic settings have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to generate higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial productive capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed productive capital.

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    Central European Journal of Operations Research
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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      Central European Journal of Operations Research
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Fleiter, Tobias; Rehfeldt, Matthias; Herbst, Andrea; Elsland, Rainer; +3 Authors

    Abstract Bottom-up energy models can support strategic decision-making and can help to manage an efficient transition to a low-carbon energy system. The manufacturing industry accounted for about 19% of EU-wide greenhouse gas emissions in 2014, which underlines the importance of this sector for model-based decarbonisation assessments. This paper describes the methodology of the FORECAST model. FORECAST is a bottom-up simulation model used to develop long-term scenarios for the future energy demand of industry, services and household sectors. In this study, we discuss the model in the light of developing transition scenarios for the decarbonisation of the industry sector. In doing so, we focus on the model's structure and simulation algorithms, and provide illustrative results. The FORECAST model includes a broad range of mitigation options combined with a high level of technological detail. Technology diffusion and stock turnover are explicitly considered to allow insights into transition pathways. The model further includes different policy levers to improve its applicability as a policy support tool. The model is designed to cover the entire industry sector from major energy-intensive processes to the numerous less energy-intensive sub-sectors and applications. The concluding discussion suggests future research directions to improve the contribution industry sector models can make to supporting the industrial energy transition.

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    Energy Strategy Reviews
    Other literature type . Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
    Fraunhofer-ePrints
    Article . 2018
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      Energy Strategy Reviews
      Other literature type . Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2018
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