• Energy Research

With the help of thermodynamics and system engineering techniques, we will discuss options to make a country like Switzerland 100% renewable and even negative in carbon dioxide emissions.

In the transition towards 100% renewable energy systems, most research points to the importance of including energy savings to reach the most cost-efficient solutions. The building sector is a key target of energy savings, the reason being that in many countries, heating account for one third of the national energy demand. To reach the most cost-efficient future energy system, it is important to find the right balance between the cost for heat savings and the cost of heat production. The variation in building quality offer different potentials for savings in buildings, where different types of saving measures have different cost rates, resulting in some being cheaper than others. In future smart energy systems, where district heating will play an important role, the introduction of large amounts of renewables and utilization of waste heat in the district heating, result in potential inexpensive heat supply cost, while the more flexible units like combined power plants and boilers will be more expensive.The balance between heat savings and heat production have been identified in several papers on an overall national level, however, what becomes apparent is that there is a geographical aspect that needs to be taken into account. The building mass is very different in urban areas with high-density population, apartment buildings, and offices, compared to rural areas and small villages. These differences also show up in the building quality, where some areas consists of new buildings while others predominantly consist of houses that are more than 50 years old. Furthermore, the heat supply costs also differs based on the geographical location of the buildings. In a smart energy system, urban housing in densely populated areas will be supplied by district heating, while heat pumps or biomass boilers will supply houses with individual heating. The geographic difference in heat supply and building types will affect the level at which energy savings will be economically feasible.This study investigates how the geographical differences in heat supply and building types in a smart energy system influence the economic feasibility of investments in heat savings. This economic feasibility is found by using energy system analysis to identify marginal production costs, and combining it with a geographical assessment of building types and heat demands to identify the different saving profiles for different areas. Together, this delivers a geographical assessment of saving potentials, where the economically feasible balance between costs and savings is identified. The study specifically applies the method to the case of Aalborg Municipality and the plan for a Smart Energy Aalborg in 2050. Furthermore, the analysis examines the socio-economically best solutions, compares these to the current tariff structures and identifies if the structures helps to achieve the required energy savings for 2050. In the transition towards 100% renewable energy systems, most research points to the importance of including energy savings to reach the most cost-efficient solutions. The building sector is a key target of energy savings, the reason being that in many countries, heating account for one third of the national energy demand. To reach the most cost-efficient future energy system, it is important to find the right balance between the cost for heat savings and the cost of heat production. The variation in building quality offer different potentials for savings in buildings, where different types of saving measures have different cost rates, resulting in some being cheaper than others. In future smart energy systems, where district heating will play an important role, the introduction of large amounts of renewables and utilization of waste heat in the district heating, result in potential inexpensive heat supply cost, while the more flexible units like combined power plants and boilers will be more expensive.The balance between heat savings and heat production have been identified in several papers on an overall national level, however, what becomes apparent is that there is a geographical aspect that needs to be taken into account. The building mass is very different in urban areas with high-density population, apartment buildings, and offices, compared to rural areas and small villages. These differences also show up in the building quality, where some areas consists of new buildings while others predominantly consist of houses that are more than 50 years old. Furthermore, the heat supply costs also differs based on the geographical location of the buildings. In a smart energy system, urban housing in densely populated areas will be supplied by district heating, while heat pumps or biomass boilers will supply houses with individual heating. The geographic difference in heat supply and building types will affect the level at which energy savings will be economically feasible.This study investigates how the geographical differences in heat supply and building types in a smart energy system influence the economic feasibility of investments in heat savings. This economic feasibility is found by using energy system analysis to identify marginal production costs, and combining it with a geographical assessment of building types and heat demands to identify the different saving profiles for different areas. Together, this delivers a geographical assessment of saving potentials, where the economically feasible balance between costs and savings is identified. The study specifically applies the method to the case of Aalborg Municipality and the plan for a Smart Energy Aalborg in 2050. Furthermore, the analysis examines the socio-economically best solutions, compares these to the current tariff structures and identifies if the structures helps to achieve the required energy savings for 2050.

The Global 100% Renewable Energy Platform (Global 100% RE) is among the first of global initiatives that advocates for 100% renewable energy.

Ingeniørforeningen og regeringen har omtrent samtidig formuleret deres visioner på energiområdet. Den samfundsøkonomiske konsekvensvurdering er foretaget begge steder, men med vidt forskellige resultater. Derfor er opgavens problemformulering:Hvorvidt er der i regeringens og i Ingeniørforeningens energiplaner gennemført samfundsøkonomiske analyser af udbygningen med vedvarende energi? I hvor højgrad er de i overensstemmelse med de gældende ministerielle vejledninger på området?Årsagen til, at der er væsentlig forskel på de to planers økonomiske resultater er, at det er to forskellige problemformuleringer, der er blevet besvaret: Problemformuleringen bag Ingeniørforeningens energiplan kunne lyde: Hvis den foreslåede udvikling af energisektoren gennemføres, og man kan designe en offentlig regulering uden omkostninger (altså uden forvridningstab) til finansieringen, så kan man opnå en ”samfundsøkonomisk gevinst” på 15 mia. kr. i 2030. Problemformuleringen bag regeringens energiplan kunne lyde: Hvis vi gennemfører stigning i vedvarende energi uden ny offentlig regulering og uden at medregne de klimamæssige fordele ved at forøge andelen af vedvarende energi, så koster vedvarende energi meget pga. skatteforvridningstabet. Ingeniørforeningen og regeringen har omtrent samtidig formuleret deres visioner på energiområdet. Den samfundsøkonomiske konsekvensvurdering er foretaget begge steder, men med vidt forskellige resultater. Derfor er opgavens problemformulering: Hvorvidt er der i regeringens og i Ingeniørforeningens energiplaner gennemført samfundsøkonomiske analyser af udbygningen med vedvarende energi? I hvor høj grad er de i overensstemmelse med de gældende ministerielle vejledninger på området? I teoriafsnittet gennemgås kort de gældende ministeriellevejledninger om samfundsøkonomiske vurderinger. I analyseafsnittet belyses, hvordan beregningerne i de to energiplaner er foretaget, og deres grundantagelser identificeres og opstilles skematisk. I diskussionsafsnittet fremhæves fire problemfelter fra den skematiske opstilling: kalkulationsrenten, skatteforvridningstabet, modelapparatet samt eksternaliteter. Forskellen mellem planerne på disse centrale punkter diskuteres kritisk. I konklusionen besvares problemformuleringen, og den samlede kvalitet af de samfundsøkonomiske analyser vurderes. Efterskriftet runder opgaven af ved at betragte den aktuelle diskussion om samfundsøkonomiske vurderinger LitteraturvalgDer er i teoriafsnittet anvendt teoretisk litteratur fra den danskecentraladministration, da disse vejledninger udgør retningslinjerne for samfundsøkonomiske analyser af offentlige tiltag i Danmark. Der er derfor kun i begrænset omfang benyttet akademisk litteratur, da den ministerielle litteratur skønnes mest relevant i forhold til opgavens problemstilling. Der er lagt vægt på at få alle relevante dokumenter med i litteraturlisten, som derfor omfatter samtlige relevante bilag fra eksempelvis Folketingets Energipolitiske Udvalg for at understrege debattens aktualitet. Den centrale litteratur er ”En visionær dansk energipolitik” og ”Ingeniørforeningens Energiplan 2030”.